What Are Markets Talking About Ahead of Paperex 2025?
28 November 2025
As Paperex 2025 approaches, Old Economy highlights four key topics that will dominate conversations at the conference this year.
Topic #1: Kraft paper mills and corrugation industry under pressure after GST rates change
The GST Council of India announced new tax rates effective 22 September 2025, whereby GST on paperboard was increased from 12% to 18% and pulled down from 12% to 5% on corrugated boxes. The inverted GST structure has resulted in high working capital requirements for corrugators, with the refund process taking long. Moreover, only 90% of the input tax credit is refunded provisionally, with the remaining 10% processed later.
More importantly, corrugators are unable to claim input tax credit on a variety of services used in the production process and have also lost tax credit on capital goods. The combined impact on cost of production is estimated to be an increase of 7-9%. To absorb the pressure of cost increases, corrugators are working on alternate product mixes and size of packaging. If the inverted structure is not corrected, the loss of input tax credit on capital goods could slow down investments and expansion plans.
Will the inverted GST structure be rectified? If not, will manufacturers be able to pass on the hike in costs to customers?
Topic #2: Imports of cheaper maplitho hurting domestic producers
As another aftereffect of the GST changes, cheaper imported maplitho is preferred over domestic material by notebook manufacturers due to an inverted duty structure. GST on uncoated printing and writing paper increased from 12% to 18% but reduced to nil from 12% on notebooks, because of which notebooks manufacturers cannot claim any input tax credits. This has led to working capital problems and an average increase of INR 8-9/kg, primarily due to higher maplitho costs. Manufacturers are finding it hard to raise notebook prices and pass on higher costs to customers. As such, they have switched to imported maplitho, which has become more competitive.
Printing and writing (P&W) paper producers are sitting on larger stocks, worried about cheaper imported material taking over the market and unable to raise offers as buyers are reluctant to even accept the current levels which are higher compared to imported material. About 40 percent of maplitho goes into notebook production and is one of the main volume businesses for mills producing P&W paper. A significant disruption in the market due to GST changes persists as maplitho producers have become uncompetitive; profits are low and costs high, putting mills under pressure.
How will domestic maplitho producers cope with competition from imports?
Topic #3: Industry awaits government’s decision on anti-dumping duty (ADD) and minimum import price (MIP)
Antidumping duty
Imports of virgin multi-layer paperboard which includes Folding Box Board (FBB), Solid Bleached Sulfate Board (SBS), Cup Stock (CUS) Paper Board and Liquid Packaging Board (LPB), all in the range of 140 to 450 gsm, and whether coated or uncoated, entered the Indian market at prices below the cost of sales and selling price of the domestic industry. This impacted profitability and suppressed the domestic industry.
Indian Paper Manufacturers Association (IPMA) had written to the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) under the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, earlier this year, to request an investigation. The Ministry had on 30 June 2025 notified about initiation of anti-dumping investigation into imports of paperboard originating in or exported from Indonesia, China and Chile.
The Ministry of Finance is to notify next month (as December is the set deadline) about its decision on ADD, and it has already received the recommendation from DGTR.
Minimum import price
Following a recommendation from Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), DGFT, after discussions with stakeholders and with the approval of Ministry of Commerce & Industry, has made amendment in import policy condition of specific items covered under Chapter 48 of ITC, HS, 2022, Schedule – I (Import Policy).
| HS Code | Description | Specification |
| 48059100 | Other uncoated paper and paperboard, in rolls and sheets, not further worked or processed | Weighing 150 g/m2 or less |
| 48059200 | “ | Weighing more than 150 g/m2 but less than 225 g/m2 |
| 48059300 | “ | Weighing 225 g/m2 or more |
| 48109200 | Paper and paperboard, coated on one or both sides with kaolin (China clay) or other inorganic substances, with or without a binder, and with no other coating, whether or not surface coloured, surface-decorated or printed, in rolls or rectangular (including square) sheets, of any size | Other paper & paperboard (multi-ply) |
| 48109900 | ” | Other paper & paperboard (Other) |
DGFT has imposed a MIP of INR 67,220 per metric ton on Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) value for imports of virgin multi-layer paperboard under ITC (HS) codes (refer table) till 31 March 2026. Whether or not the MIP is extended beyond March will depend on the outcome of the ADD investigation and other findings.
Will the government’s upcoming decision on ADD and MIP eliminate dumping of cheaper imported paperboard into the country?
Topic #4: Wastepaper market in India impacted after China tightens restrictions on recycled pulp imports
China imposed a restriction on imports of dry milled recycled pulp effective 10 October, following which, volumes were redirected to the India market, with an impact seen straightaway as offers reduced across grades by up to $30 per tonne.
Buyers have stepped in, but some have continued with a wait and see approach. Market dynamics are further complicated by upcoming holidays in the US and Europe, which will lower supply. Chinese New Year holidays in February will further reduce market participation. Markets remain fluid, with price discovery still ongoing. Our assessments indicate divergent trends in prices across different segments of the wastepaper and pulp markets.
Where will raw material markets settle? Will global trade flows be reshaped by this development?
Old Economy will be at Paperex 2025 – send us a note on paper@oldeconomy.com if you’d like to catch up!